The Allais Paradox
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Okay, I have a hypothetical situation for you – and you need to make a choice. Listen carefully. You’ve just visited the doctor and she told you you’re going to die unless you get treated immediately. There are two treatments - The blue pill would give you a 100% chance of living another 12 years before dying, and the red pill would give you an 89% chance of living another 12 years, a 10% chance of living another 18 years and a 1% chance of sudden death. Which do you choose? Now remember your answer, and imagine a slightly different scenario. Your regular doctor is out that day so you go to the slightly dodgier one next door, who offers you two other treatments: The green pill gives you an 11% chance of living 12 years before dying and an 89% chance of su...
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Okay, I have a hypothetical situation for you – and you need to make a choice. Listen carefully. You’ve just visited the doctor and she told you you’re going to die unless you get treated immediately. There are two treatments - The blue pill would give you a 100% chance of living another 12 years before dying, and the red pill would give you an 89% chance of living another 12 years, a 10% chance of living another 18 years and a 1% chance of sudden death. Which do you choose? Now remember your answer, and imagine a slightly different scenario. Your regular doctor is out that day so you go to the slightly dodgier one next door, who offers you two other treatments: The green pill gives you an 11% chance of living 12 years before dying and an 89% chance of su...
