The Bayesian Trap
Bayes' theorem explained with examples and implications for life. Check out Audible: http://ve42.co/audible Support Veritasium on Patreon: http://ve42.co/patreon I didn't say it explicitly...
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Picture this: You wake up one morning andyou feel a little bit sick. No particularsymptoms, just not 100%.So you go to the doctor and she alsodoesn't know what's going on with you, soshe suggests they run a battery of testsand after a week goes by, the resultscome back, turns out you tested positivefor a very rare disease that affectsabout 0.1% of thepopulation and it's a nasty disease,horrible consequences, you don't want it.So you ask the doctor "You know, howcertain is it that I have this disease?"and she says "Well, the test willcorrectly identify 99% of people thathave the disease and only incorrectlyidentify 1% of people who don'thave the disease". So that sounds prettybad. I mean, what are...
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Picture this: You wake up one morning andyou feel a little bit sick. No particularsymptoms, just not 100%.So you go to the doctor and she alsodoesn't know what's going on with you, soshe suggests they run a battery of testsand after a week goes by, the resultscome back, turns out you tested positivefor a very rare disease that affectsabout 0.1% of thepopulation and it's a nasty disease,horrible consequences, you don't want it.So you ask the doctor "You know, howcertain is it that I have this disease?"and she says "Well, the test willcorrectly identify 99% of people thathave the disease and only incorrectlyidentify 1% of people who don'thave the disease". So that sounds prettybad. I mean, what are...
